Head to Head

Updated June 5, 2026 from live stats

Derek Carr vs Joe BurrowWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 16.8 PPG to Derek Carr's 15.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Joe Burrow is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Joe Burrow edges Derek Carr by 1.0 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Joe Burrow goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBNew Orleans Saints#99

Derek Carr

PPG

15.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,428

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

105

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 12

QBCincinnati Bengals#15PPG LEADER

Joe Burrow

PPG

16.8

Games

Pass Yds

1,809

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 6

The Edge Chart

Derek Carr

Joe Burrow

Head to Head

15.8 PPG16.8 PPG

15 GP8 GP

Bye: Week 12Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Tiers

Derek Carr: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Joe Burrow: Tier 3 (Flex/Starter) QB (ranked #15 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Derek Carr is producing at 72% of elite pace and Joe Burrow at 76%. That ranking gap means Joe Burrow carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Derek Carr vs Joe Burrow: The Full Breakdown

Derek Carr (15.8 PPG) and Joe Burrow (16.8 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Derek Carr played 15 games for the New Orleans Saints; Joe Burrow suited up 8 times for the Cincinnati Bengals.

A 1.0-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Derek Carr threw for 3428 yards and 22 touchdowns, while Joe Burrow posted 1809 yards and 17 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Derek Carr sits Week 12 while Joe Burrow is off Week 6. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Derek Carr (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Joe Burrow (age 29) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Joe Burrow outscored Derek Carr by a projected 17 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Derek Carr played 15 games in 2025 compared to Joe Burrow's 8. That durability gap means Derek Carr contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Derek Carr scored 23 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Derek Carr vs Joe Burrow: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Derek Carr	Joe Burrow
PPG (Half-PPR)	15.8	16.8
Games Played	15	8
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	237	134
Passing Yards	3,428	1,809
Passing TDs	22	17
Pass Yds/Game	228.5	226.1
Rushing Yards	105	41
Rushing TDs	1	0
Total TDs	23	17
TDs/Game	1.5	2.1
Age	-	29
Experience	-	5 yrs
Bye Week	Week 12	Week 6

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Joe Burrow holds the PPG edge with solid output at 16.8 points per game. Derek Carr averaged 15.8 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Derek Carr or Joe Burrow in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Joe Burrow has the edge at 16.8 PPG compared to Derek Carr's 15.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Derek Carr and Joe Burrow average in 2025?▾

Derek Carr averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 15 games in 2025. Joe Burrow averaged 16.8 PPG over 8 games. That is a difference of 1.0 points per game.

When are Derek Carr and Joe Burrow's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Derek Carr (NO) has a bye in Week 12, and Joe Burrow (CIN) has a bye in Week 6. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Derek Carr or Joe Burrow a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Joe Burrow outscored Derek Carr by 1.0 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.