Head to Head

Updated June 5, 2026 from live stats

Caleb Williams vs Derek CarrWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Caleb Williams is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 18.7 PPG to Derek Carr's 15.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Caleb Williams is the better fantasy play this season.

Caleb Williams has the edge, but it is not a runaway. The 2.9-PPG advantage is real (18.7 to 15.8), and Caleb Williams's 31 touchdowns show scoring upside. Derek Carr is the buy-low candidate if recent production has dipped, because the talent gap is smaller than the numbers suggest.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

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QBChicago Bears#8PPG LEADER

Caleb Williams

PPG

18.7

Games

Pass Yds

3,942

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

383

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBNew Orleans Saints#99

Derek Carr

PPG

15.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,428

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

105

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 12

The Edge Chart

Caleb Williams

Derek Carr

Head to Head

18.7 PPG15.8 PPG

17 GP15 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Tiers

Caleb Williams: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) QB (ranked #8 at the position). Derek Carr: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Caleb Williams is producing at 85% of elite pace and Derek Carr at 72%. That ranking gap means Caleb Williams carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Caleb Williams vs Derek Carr: The Full Breakdown

Caleb Williams and Derek Carr are both viable fantasy quarterbacks heading into 2026, but their 2025 production tells two different stories. Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 PPG across 17 games with the Chicago Bears, while Derek Carr posted 15.8 PPG in 15 appearances for the New Orleans Saints.

A 2.9-PPG gap gives Caleb Williams the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Caleb Williams threw for 3942 yards and 27 touchdowns, while Derek Carr posted 3428 yards and 22 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Caleb Williams sits Week 10 while Derek Carr is off Week 12. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Caleb Williams (age 24) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising. Derek Carr (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Caleb Williams outscored Derek Carr by a projected 49 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Caleb Williams played 17 games in 2025 compared to Derek Carr's 15. That durability gap means Caleb Williams contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Caleb Williams scored 31 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.8 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Caleb Williams added 383 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Caleb Williams vs Derek Carr: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Caleb Williams	Derek Carr
PPG (Half-PPR)	18.7	15.8
Games Played	17	15
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	318	237
Passing Yards	3,942	3,428
Passing TDs	27	22
Pass Yds/Game	231.9	228.5
Rushing Yards	383	105
Rushing TDs	3	1
Total TDs	31	23
TDs/Game	1.8	1.5
Age	24	-
Experience	1 yrs	-
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 12

Summary

Caleb Williams outscored Derek Carr by 2.9 PPG in 2025 (18.7 to 15.8). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Caleb Williams or Derek Carr in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Caleb Williams has the edge at 18.7 PPG compared to Derek Carr's 15.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Caleb Williams and Derek Carr average in 2025?▾

Caleb Williams averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 17 games in 2025. Derek Carr averaged 15.8 PPG over 15 games. That is a difference of 2.9 points per game.

When are Caleb Williams and Derek Carr's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Caleb Williams (CHI) has a bye in Week 10, and Derek Carr (NO) has a bye in Week 12. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Caleb Williams or Derek Carr a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Caleb Williams outscored Derek Carr by 2.9 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.