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Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)

What does Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) mean?

Expected Fantasy Points is what a player should have scored based on the quality and volume of his opportunities, regardless of the actual outcome. A player consistently scoring more than his xFP is likely to regress; a player scoring less is likely to rebound.

Related terms

RegressionOpportunity Share
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DraftCall app on iPhone

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Put Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) into practice

Compare any two NFL players head to head, read full 2026 outlooks, and make weekly start or sit calls with AI-powered reasoning. DraftCall turns the vocabulary into wins.

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Free on the App Store and Google Play. $2.99/month premium.

Inside the app

  • DraftCall opening screen. Plain-English fantasy help, from your first draft to game day.
  • Compare screen. Pick any two players and DraftCall calls it in seconds, with PPR, half, standard, and TE premium scoring toggles.
  • Verdict screen. Start Joe Burrow over Lamar Jackson at 68.2 percent confidence, with key factors, boom and bust ranges, and a stat-by-stat tale of the tape.
  • Feed screen. Injuries, big games, and status changes filtered to your own players first.
  • My Team screen. Starters with points per game, plus bye week and start-sit views of the whole lineup.