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Head to Head

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Davis Mills vs J.J. McCarthyWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

J.J. McCarthy is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 12.5 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

J.J. McCarthy is the better fantasy play this season.

Statistically, J.J. McCarthy and Davis Mills are interchangeable on a season-long basis. The 1.1-PPG gap is one broken play per game. For weekly start/sit calls, check opponent defense and recent form before defaulting to the name.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBHouston Texans#36
Davis Mills
PPG
11.4
Games
6
Pass Yds
915
Pass TDs
5
Rush TDs
1
Bye
Week 8
QBMinnesota Vikings#32PPG LEADER
J.J. McCarthy
PPG
12.5
Games
10
Pass Yds
1,632
Pass TDs
11
Rush Yds
181
Rush TDs
4
Bye
Week 6

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Davis Mills
J.J. McCarthy

Head to Head

11.4 PPG12.5 PPG
6 GP10 GP
Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). J.J. McCarthy: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #32 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and J.J. McCarthy at 57%. That ranking gap means J.J. McCarthy carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Davis Mills vs J.J. McCarthy: The Full Breakdown

The gap between Davis Mills and J.J. McCarthy is smaller than most fantasy managers think. Separated by just 1.1 PPG in 2025, this is one of those quarterback decisions that comes down to context, not name recognition. Davis Mills averaged 11.4 PPG with the Houston Texans across 6 games, and J.J. McCarthy posted 12.5 with the Minnesota Vikings in 10.

When two quarterbacks are separated by less than two points per game, the decision shifts to weekly context. Who has the softer defense? Who is trending up over the last month? Which team is projected for more total points? Those are the tiebreakers that actually matter.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Davis Mills threw for 915 yards and 5 touchdowns, while J.J. McCarthy posted 1632 yards and 11 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Davis Mills has his bye in Week 8, and J.J. McCarthy rests in Week 6. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. J.J. McCarthy (age 23) is in the early stages of his career with 5+ years of starter-caliber upside. His dynasty value is rising.

Did You Know?

  • J.J. McCarthy outscored Davis Mills by a projected 19 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • J.J. McCarthy played 10 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means J.J. McCarthy contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • J.J. McCarthy scored 15 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
  • J.J. McCarthy is 4 years younger than Davis Mills (23 vs 27), which significantly impacts dynasty league trade value.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs J.J. McCarthy: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatDavis MillsJ.J. McCarthy
PPG (Half-PPR)11.412.5
Games Played610
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)68125
Passing Yards9151,632
Passing TDs511
Pass Yds/Game152.5163.2
Rushing Yards60181
Rushing TDs14
Total TDs615
TDs/Game1.01.5
Age2723
Experience4 yrs1 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 8Week 6

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor J.J. McCarthy at 12.5 PPG, 1.1 points per game above Davis Mills's 11.4. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or J.J. McCarthy in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, J.J. McCarthy has the edge at 12.5 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and J.J. McCarthy average in 2025?

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. J.J. McCarthy averaged 12.5 PPG over 10 games. That is a difference of 1.1 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and J.J. McCarthy's bye weeks in 2026?

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and J.J. McCarthy (MIN) has a bye in Week 6. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or J.J. McCarthy a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?

J.J. McCarthy outscored Davis Mills by 1.1 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.