Head to Head

Updated June 5, 2026 from live stats

Davis Mills vs Gardner MinshewWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Gardner Minshew is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 12.4 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Gardner Minshew is the better fantasy play this season.

This one is genuinely close. Gardner Minshew edges Davis Mills by 1.0 PPG, but both are in the same production tier. The decision comes down to weekly matchup, not season-long resume. If you are choosing between them in a draft, Gardner Minshew goes slightly earlier based on volume, but do not reach for the difference.

Low confidence: the production gap is narrow enough that weekly context matters more than the season line.

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QBHouston Texans#36

Davis Mills

PPG

11.4

Games

Pass Yds

915

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

QBLas Vegas Raiders#99PPG LEADER

Gardner Minshew

PPG

12.4

Games

Pass Yds

2,420

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

125

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 10

The Edge Chart

Davis Mills

Gardner Minshew

Head to Head

11.4 PPG12.4 PPG

6 GP12 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 10

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). Gardner Minshew: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and Gardner Minshew at 56%. That ranking gap means Davis Mills carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Davis Mills vs Gardner Minshew: The Full Breakdown

Davis Mills (11.4 PPG) and Gardner Minshew (12.4 PPG) produced nearly identical fantasy numbers in 2025. When two quarterbacks are this close on a per-game basis, the weekly matchup matters more than the season-long resume. Davis Mills played 6 games for the Houston Texans; Gardner Minshew suited up 12 times for the Las Vegas Raiders.

A 1.0-point per-game gap over a full season is essentially noise. It means one extra catch, one fewer target, or a single broken play away from flipping the script. For a weekly start/sit call between these two, matchup analysis matters far more than the season line.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Davis Mills threw for 915 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Gardner Minshew posted 2420 yards and 14 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Davis Mills sits Week 8 while Gardner Minshew is off Week 10. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Both are in a similar trade value range. A straight swap would be fair in most leagues, with the tiebreaker going to whichever manager values schedule or bye week more. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Gardner Minshew (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Gardner Minshew outscored Davis Mills by a projected 17 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Gardner Minshew played 12 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means Gardner Minshew contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Gardner Minshew scored 15 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.3 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs Gardner Minshew: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Davis Mills	Gardner Minshew
PPG (Half-PPR)	11.4	12.4
Games Played	6	12
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	68	149
Passing Yards	915	2,420
Passing TDs	5	14
Pass Yds/Game	152.5	201.7
Rushing Yards	60	125
Rushing TDs	1	1
Total TDs	6	15
TDs/Game	1.0	1.3
Age	27	-
Experience	4 yrs	-
Bye Week	Week 8	Week 10

Summary

Based on 2025 production, Gardner Minshew holds the PPG edge with serviceable output at 12.4 points per game. Davis Mills averaged 11.4 PPG. Season averages are a starting point, not the final word. For a full AI analysis factoring matchup quality, recent form, injury impact, and game script, download DraftCall and get a verdict backed by real data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or Gardner Minshew in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Gardner Minshew has the edge at 12.4 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and Gardner Minshew average in 2025?▾

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. Gardner Minshew averaged 12.4 PPG over 12 games. That is a difference of 1.0 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and Gardner Minshew's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Gardner Minshew (LV) has a bye in Week 10. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or Gardner Minshew a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Gardner Minshew outscored Davis Mills by 1.0 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.