Head to Head

Updated June 5, 2026 from live stats

Davis Mills vs Derek CarrWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Derek Carr is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 15.8 PPG to Davis Mills's 11.4 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Derek Carr is the better fantasy play this season.

Derek Carr is the better play on a neutral week. 15.8 PPG with 3,533 yards gives a reliable baseline. Davis Mills at 11.4 PPG is not far behind and could win specific weeks where matchup and game script align. Draft Derek Carr higher, but do not fade Davis Mills entirely.

Moderate confidence: stats favor the leader, but matchup variance could flip this weekly.

Want this verdict updated live on Sunday?

Track Davis Mills and Derek Carr in the DraftCall app and get their updates the moment they change.

Get the App

QBHouston Texans#36

Davis Mills

PPG

11.4

Games

Pass Yds

915

Pass TDs

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 8

QBNew Orleans Saints#99PPG LEADER

Derek Carr

PPG

15.8

Games

Pass Yds

3,428

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

105

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 12

The Edge Chart

Davis Mills

Derek Carr

Head to Head

11.4 PPG15.8 PPG

6 GP15 GP

Bye: Week 8Bye: Week 12

Fantasy Tiers

Davis Mills: Tier 4 (Bench/Bye Fill) QB (ranked #36 at the position). Derek Carr: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Davis Mills is producing at 52% of elite pace and Derek Carr at 72%. That ranking gap means Davis Mills carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Davis Mills vs Derek Carr: The Full Breakdown

If you are choosing between Davis Mills and Derek Carr for your lineup, you are not alone. Davis Mills finished the 2025 season at 11.4 PPG for the Houston Texans (6 games), and Derek Carr averaged 15.8 for the New Orleans Saints (15 games).

That 4.4-point weekly advantage for Derek Carr is meaningful but not automatic. Fantasy football is a week-to-week sport, and the answer to "who should I start" often changes based on opponent, recent form, and game environment. Season averages set the baseline; weekly context makes the call.

Both lean on arm talent and offensive scheme as traditional pocket passers. Davis Mills threw for 915 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Derek Carr posted 3428 yards and 22 scores. Volume, red zone efficiency, and game script are the key week-to-week differentiators when neither carries rushing upside.

Davis Mills has his bye in Week 8, and Derek Carr rests in Week 12. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at quarterback for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

Derek Carr is a buy in trades where the other manager is chasing upside at a different position. Davis Mills is a hold unless you can flip him for a positional upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Dynasty outlook: Davis Mills (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Derek Carr (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Derek Carr outscored Davis Mills by a projected 75 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Derek Carr played 15 games in 2025 compared to Davis Mills's 6. That durability gap means Derek Carr contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Derek Carr scored 23 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.5 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Davis Mills vs Derek Carr: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Davis Mills	Derek Carr
PPG (Half-PPR)	11.4	15.8
Games Played	6	15
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	68	237
Passing Yards	915	3,428
Passing TDs	5	22
Pass Yds/Game	152.5	228.5
Rushing Yards	60	105
Rushing TDs	1	1
Total TDs	6	23
TDs/Game	1.0	1.5
Age	27	-
Experience	4 yrs	-
Bye Week	Week 8	Week 12

Summary

The 2025 numbers favor Derek Carr at 15.8 PPG, 4.4 points per game above Davis Mills's 11.4. But season stats only tell part of the story. DraftCall's AI factors in weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status to give you a verdict that updates with the latest data.

Website vs App

Get the AI verdict on Davis Mills vs Derek Carr

DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality, recent trends, injury impact, and game script to give you a clear start/sit recommendation.

See everything in the app →

Launch List

Get the live verdict on Davis Mills vs Derek Carr

The DraftCall app delivers live game-day verdicts on every matchup. Join the launch list and we will email you the day it goes live for the 2026 NFL season, with your direct iOS and Android install links.

We will never share your email. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Davis Mills or Derek Carr in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Derek Carr has the edge at 15.8 PPG compared to Davis Mills's 11.4 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Davis Mills and Derek Carr average in 2025?▾

Davis Mills averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 6 games in 2025. Derek Carr averaged 15.8 PPG over 15 games. That is a difference of 4.4 points per game.

When are Davis Mills and Derek Carr's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Davis Mills (HOU) has a bye in Week 8, and Derek Carr (NO) has a bye in Week 12. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Davis Mills or Derek Carr a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Derek Carr outscored Davis Mills by 4.4 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.