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Dalton Kincaid vs Terrance FergusonWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

DraftCall Analytics

Start Dalton Kincaid over Terrance Ferguson in 2026.

Dalton Kincaid averaged 8.9 PPG in 2025 to Terrance Ferguson's 3.3, a 5.6 point per game edge. Both play tight ends, so that per-game gap is the cleanest tiebreaker for a 2026 start or sit.

The Bottom Line

Dalton Kincaid is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 8.9 PPG and 571 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Terrance Ferguson (3.3 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Dalton Kincaid as the starter and Terrance Ferguson as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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TEBuffalo Bills#11PPG LEADER
Dalton Kincaid
PPG
8.9
Games
12
Rec
39
Rec Yds
571
Rec TDs
5
Targets
49
Bye
Week 7
TELos Angeles Rams#99
Terrance Ferguson
PPG
3.3
Games
14
Rec
11
Rec Yds
231
Rec TDs
3
Targets
25
Bye
Week 6

The Edge Chart

VolumeEfficiencyTD UpsideFloorCeilingDurability
Dalton Kincaid
Terrance Ferguson

Head to Head

8.9 PPG3.3 PPG
12 GP14 GP
Bye: Week 7Bye: Week 6

Fantasy Tiers

Dalton Kincaid: Tier 2 (Strong Starter) TE (ranked #11 at the position). Terrance Ferguson: Unranked TE. Among the top 30 tight ends this season, Dalton Kincaid is producing at 40% of elite pace and Terrance Ferguson at 15%. That ranking gap means Dalton Kincaid carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Dalton Kincaid vs Terrance Ferguson: The Full Breakdown

Dalton Kincaid and Terrance Ferguson are both viable fantasy tight ends heading into 2026, but their 2025 production tells two different stories. Dalton Kincaid averaged 8.9 PPG across 12 games with the Buffalo Bills, while Terrance Ferguson posted 3.3 PPG in 14 appearances for the Los Angeles Rams.

A 5.6-PPG gap gives Dalton Kincaid the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Dalton Kincaid is the volume tight end in this matchup with 39 receptions for 571 yards, while Terrance Ferguson profiles as a more touchdown-dependent spike play (3 scores on 11 catches). In weeks where Terrance Ferguson finds the end zone he out-scores Dalton Kincaid, but the floor gap is real.

Dalton Kincaid has his bye in Week 7, and Terrance Ferguson rests in Week 6. Managers rostering both need waiver wire depth at tight end for those two weeks, and that is exactly the kind of planning DraftCall's matchup engine surfaces automatically so you are not scrambling on a Sunday morning.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Dalton Kincaid at a discount because your league-mates undervalue tight end production, do it. Terrance Ferguson is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Dalton Kincaid (age 26) is in the middle of his productive window. Stable dynasty value. Terrance Ferguson (age 23) has years of prime production ahead. Buy-and-hold dynasty asset.

Did You Know?

  • Dalton Kincaid outscored Terrance Ferguson by a projected 95 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
  • Terrance Ferguson played 14 games in 2025 compared to Dalton Kincaid's 12. That durability gap means Terrance Ferguson contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
  • Dalton Kincaid scored 5 total touchdowns in 2025 (0.4 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at tight end.
  • Dalton Kincaid saw 49 targets in 2025. Target volume is the single strongest predictor of weekly PPR production at the tight end position.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Dalton Kincaid vs Terrance Ferguson: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
StatDalton KincaidTerrance Ferguson
PPG (Half-PPR)8.93.3
Games Played1214
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)10746
Receptions3911
Rec/Game3.30.8
Receiving Yards571231
Rec Yds/Game47.616.5
Receiving TDs53
Targets4925
Target Share/Game4.11.8
Age2623
Experience2 yrs1 yrs
Bye WeekWeek 7Week 6

Summary

Dalton Kincaid outscored Terrance Ferguson by 5.6 PPG in 2025 (8.9 to 3.3). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Dalton Kincaid or Terrance Ferguson in fantasy football?

Based on 2025 season averages, Dalton Kincaid has the edge at 8.9 PPG compared to Terrance Ferguson's 3.3 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Dalton Kincaid and Terrance Ferguson average in 2025?

Dalton Kincaid averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 12 games in 2025. Terrance Ferguson averaged 3.3 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 5.6 points per game.

When are Dalton Kincaid and Terrance Ferguson's bye weeks in 2026?

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) has a bye in Week 7, and Terrance Ferguson (LAR) has a bye in Week 6. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Dalton Kincaid or Terrance Ferguson a better fantasy tight end in 2026?

Dalton Kincaid outscored Terrance Ferguson by 5.6 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.