Head to Head

Updated June 5, 2026 from live stats

Aidan O'Connell vs Patrick MahomesWho should you start in 2026 fantasy football?

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy start for 2026, averaging 20.4 PPG to Aidan O'Connell's 12.8 in 2025. Full head to head breakdown below.

The Bottom Line

Patrick Mahomes is the better fantasy play this season.

Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better fantasy option heading into 2026. With 20.4 PPG and 3,999 total yards in 2025, the production separation is too wide to overcome on matchup alone. Aidan O'Connell (12.8 PPG) is a hold, not a sell, but roster Patrick Mahomes as the starter and Aidan O'Connell as depth.

High confidence: stats strongly favor the leader, and the gap is unlikely to close on matchup alone.

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QBLas Vegas Raiders#99

Aidan O'Connell

PPG

12.8

Games

Pass Yds

2,650

Pass TDs

Bye

Week 10

QBKansas City Chiefs#4PPG LEADER

Patrick Mahomes

PPG

20.4

Games

Pass Yds

3,587

Pass TDs

Rush Yds

422

Rush TDs

Bye

Week 5

The Edge Chart

Aidan O'Connell

Patrick Mahomes

Head to Head

12.8 PPG20.4 PPG

13 GP14 GP

Bye: Week 10Bye: Week 5

Fantasy Tiers

Aidan O'Connell: Tier 5 (Deep League) QB (ranked #99 at the position). Patrick Mahomes: Tier 1 (Elite) QB (ranked #4 at the position). Among the top 32 quarterbacks this season, Aidan O'Connell is producing at 58% of elite pace and Patrick Mahomes at 93%. That ranking gap means Patrick Mahomes carries more trade value and a higher draft cost in 2026.

Aidan O'Connell vs Patrick Mahomes: The Full Breakdown

The numbers tell a clear story here. Patrick Mahomes put up 20.4 fantasy points per game for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025, while Aidan O'Connell managed 12.8 across 13 games with the Las Vegas Raiders. A 7.6-point weekly edge is substantial at the quarterback position.

A 7.6-PPG gap gives Patrick Mahomes the edge on paper, but paper does not account for Thursday night matchups, weather games, or a star defender returning from injury. The real question is not who was better in 2025, but who is the better start this specific week.

Patrick Mahomes offers meaningful rushing upside with 422 yards on the ground in 2025, which separates his floor from a pocket passer like Aidan O'Connell (2650 passing yards, 16 touchdowns). In games where the passing matchup looks ugly, that rushing production can be the entire difference on a start/sit call.

Bye weeks matter for roster construction: Aidan O'Connell sits Week 10 while Patrick Mahomes is off Week 5. If you are deciding between the two as a season-long roster hold, the staggered byes actually work in your favor.

Trade Value + Dynasty Outlook

If you can acquire Patrick Mahomes at a discount because your league-mates undervalue quarterback production, do it. Aidan O'Connell is a reasonable sell-high candidate if his recent games have spiked above his season average. Dynasty outlook: Aidan O'Connell (age 27) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons. Patrick Mahomes (age 30) is in his prime window. Peak production now with steady value for the next 3-4 seasons.

Did You Know?

•Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by a projected 129 total fantasy points over a full 17-game season.
•Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025 compared to Aidan O'Connell's 13. That durability gap means Patrick Mahomes contributed more total fantasy points even before you look at per-game averages.
•Patrick Mahomes scored 27 total touchdowns in 2025 (1.9 per game), making him one of the more reliable scoring options at quarterback.
•Patrick Mahomes added 422 rushing yards in 2025, which historically correlates with a higher fantasy floor in bad passing matchups.

Detailed Stat Breakdown

Aidan O'Connell vs Patrick Mahomes: 2025 fantasy football stat comparison in the half-PPR scoring format.
Stat	Aidan O'Connell	Patrick Mahomes
PPG (Half-PPR)	12.8	20.4
Games Played	13	14
Total Fantasy Pts (est.)	166	286
Passing Yards	2,650	3,587
Passing TDs	16	22
Pass Yds/Game	203.8	256.2
Rushing Yards	68	422
Rushing TDs	0	5
Total TDs	16	27
TDs/Game	1.2	1.9
Age	-	30
Experience	-	8 yrs
Bye Week	Week 10	Week 5

Summary

Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by 7.6 PPG in 2025 (20.4 to 12.8). That production gap is the baseline, but weekly context shifts the answer. DraftCall analyzes matchup difficulty, scoring trends, and health data to deliver a clear start or sit recommendation backed by real reasoning.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start Aidan O'Connell or Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football?▾

Based on 2025 season averages, Patrick Mahomes has the edge at 20.4 PPG compared to Aidan O'Connell's 12.8 PPG. However, the best start depends on weekly matchup, recent form, and injury status. DraftCall's app provides real-time AI-powered verdicts that factor in all of these variables.

How many fantasy points did Aidan O'Connell and Patrick Mahomes average in 2025?▾

Aidan O'Connell averaged 12.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) across 13 games in 2025. Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG over 14 games. That is a difference of 7.6 points per game.

When are Aidan O'Connell and Patrick Mahomes's bye weeks in 2026?▾

Aidan O'Connell (LV) has a bye in Week 10, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) has a bye in Week 5. Plan your roster accordingly if you are carrying both players.

Is Aidan O'Connell or Patrick Mahomes a better fantasy quarterback in 2026?▾

Patrick Mahomes outscored Aidan O'Connell by 7.6 PPG in 2025, which gives him the edge heading into 2026. For a week-by-week verdict, DraftCall's AI analyzes matchup quality and recent trends in real time.